The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal—which will cut Russian gas flow to Europe by 30%, from an already reduced 35% of 2021 levels—underscores Europe's structural and political challenges in fully eliminating reliance on Russian energy.

Despite sanctions and efforts to diversify energy sources, Europe has not fully decoupled from Russian gas. Indirect purchases through third-party countries, long-term contracts, and Russia's shadow fleet enable Russian energy to continue flowing into Europe via complex, covert channels.