Onero Research
Defensive Realism, Regional Power Competition, and the Escalation of Houthi Threats in the Red Sea
Defensive realism provides the most analytically sound framework for explaining the rise of the Houthi threat and the strategic environment shaping U.S. policy options. Rooted in the logic of the international system, defensive realism maintains that states, faced with anarchy and uncertainty in the absence of global authority, pursue strategies aimed primarily at securing survival rather than maximizing power.
The Development of Islamist Terrorism in the Sahelian region of West Africa since 2010
With the rise of Islamist terror in West Africa increasing and the geopolitical scene on the continent being sensitive to world shocks, this article delves into the origins of the various terrorist actors present in the Sahel. Understanding the impact of a colonial past and politically unstable present on government responses to attacks is important to navigate the realities faced by communities in the region.
Beyond the Streets: Iran’s Youth and the Transformation of Protest
When crowds took to Iran’s streets to protest against the government in early 2026, the images seemed familiar. The demonstrators across cities, not just Tehran, chanted against political authority, and security forces responded with overwhelming force. But one of the most important stories of the current movement and politics of Iran is not whether the protests are visible. Rather, the more important story is how repeated cycles of protest and repression have transformed how young Iranians think about power, risk and the possibility of change.
ENI as a Geopolitical Actor: Italy’s Energy Diplomacy in the Mediterranean
Italy has leveraged ENI’s hybrid corporate–state role to reposition itself in Europe’s post-Ukraine energy order, using investments, pipelines, and regional partnerships in North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean to enhance geopolitical influence and energy security.
A Deep Dive Into Moldova's Latest Elections
Russia’s long struggle to control Moldova, from imperial annexation to Soviet rule, shaped enduring divisions. In 2025, Moscow deployed political proxies, energy pressure, and disinformation to block European integration, but Moldovan voters decisively backed Maia Sandu’s pro-Western path forward clearly.
Is the EU likely to become a major international actor?
The European Union faces internal and external challenges that threaten its continuity. This article examines these issues and the EU Strategic Agenda’s responses, assessing the Union’s state to explore whether the EU is likely to emerge as a global actor.
Gender and Political Corruption in Ukraine (1991-2025)
Grand corruption in Ukraine shows gendered patterns: women's lower involvement stems from underrepresentation, portfolio allocation, and differing attitudes toward corruption, while persistent institutional weaknesses remain amid war and reform pressures.
Serbia and Kosovo Twelve Years After the Brussels Agreement
Serbia–Kosovo normalization has stalled since the Brussels Agreement due to unresolved Serb autonomy, sovereignty disputes, and weak EU enforcement, while stronger EU mediation is crucial for Balkan stability and broader international credibility.
The Fragmentation of Transatlantic Order and the EU’s Internal Vulnerabilities: Corruption, Cohesion and the Future of European Rule-making
Economic redistribution, migration policy, corruption, nationalism, and falling U.S. support are eroding the EU’s unity, leaving it increasingly fragmented and institutionally weakened.
Explaining the Debate of Ukraine’s Prospects for NATO Membership
The article examines Ukraine’s long relationship with NATO, weighing strategic, democratic, and security arguments for and against membership amid war with Russia, assessing barriers, alternatives, and uncertain future prospects for Europe and transatlantic stability overall.
Russia’s Indoctrination of Ukrainian Children Amidst War
Since Russia's invasion, Russian authorities have kidnapped thousands of Ukrainian children, placed them for adoption in Russia, and reeducated them under the guise of therapy. The global community's neglect has reduced the likelihood of their return.
What Comes After Orbán: The Tisza Wave and the Opposition's Dilemma
Péter Magyar's Tisza party has surged to lead Fidesz in polls, the most credible challenge since 2010. Hungary’s unique electoral structure means the traditional opposition could determine whether Tisza can enact its agenda. They must decide whether to withdraw or compete.
Russia’s Fiscal Fortress Is Made of Sand
Moscow is skilled in illusion: beneath the low-debt façade, Russia’s economy is buckling under high rates and dwindling reserves.
Language, Identity, and Power: The Political Trajectory of Catalan in Contemporary Spain
This study examines how Catalan language policies evolved across Spain’s 20th–21st centuries, analyzing governmental attitudes, political motives, and identity struggles shaping Catalan’s recognition, suppression, and revival within shifting national frameworks.
James Mason’s Accelerationism and the Rise of Decentralized Neo-Nazi Youth Cells in Europe
James Mason’s Siege ideology, revived in online subcultures, has helped spawn decentralized, youth-led, neo-Nazi cells across Europe. These groups translate accelerationist doctrine into propaganda, practical know-how, and sporadic violence, creating a digitally mediated threat to democratic stability.
Missile Warfare and Air Defense in the Ukraine Conflict: Evaluating Long-Range Systems and Ukraine's Defenses Against Russian Threats
The Russo-Ukrainian war has been marked by mutual short-range missile and drone attacks, but Ukraine has struggled to gain a significant advantage in aerial warfare. In November of 2024, former President Biden approved the discretionary use of long-range missiles by Ukraine in the ongoing war against Russia. Since then, how have long-range missiles altered the nature of the war?
Hungary’s Pride Ban: Domestic Concerns and International Intervention
In March 2025, the Hungarian Parliament, led by the illiberal populist Fidesz party, passed by a large majority a bill banning LGBTQ+ assembly, including Pride parades.Though this legislation is not particularly surprising given Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s track record of targeting the LGBTQ+ communityand other minorities, it furthers an alarming agenda and poses significant domestic and international concern.
An Examination of the Growing Rivalry Between France and Türkiye
In May 2025, during the European Political Community summit in Tirana, Albania, a video of Turkish President Reçep Tayyip Erdoğan grabbing the French President's finger and refusing to shake his hand went viral on social media. This clash was not the first time such an incident between the two leaders occurred. In 2020, Erdoğan said that Macron needed mental treatment over an argument when the French president defended the country’s policy of laïcité after a teacher got beheaded. The personal tension between Macron and Erdoğan illustrates the growing geopolitical rivalry between Ankara and Paris.
The Iran-Iraq War and the Securitization of Iran’s Energy Sector
This paper argues that the Iran-Iraq War was essential to the securitization of Iran’s energy sector by transforming it from a standard political issue into a matter of national survival. The paper will first examine how Iran enabled the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to consolidate control of the country’s energy industry as a means of safeguarding it from external pressure, followed by an investigation into how the regime created a secret “shadow fleet” network to facilitate illicit oil exports, which Iran began to perceive as a crucial tool for its survival. Finally, the paper will explore how Iran has employed a range of unconventional tactics to defend its critical energy infrastructure from external attack, thereby cementing Tehran’s energy sector as a top priority for the regime.
The German Immigration Crisis
Germany’s immigration policy, shaped by historical labor needs and recent refugee crises, has led to rising tensions, nationalist backlash, and crime concerns, prompting stricter reforms and calls for controlled borders.

